{"id":141899,"date":"2014-03-31T08:25:00","date_gmt":"2014-03-31T06:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/noticies\/els-escenaris-de-lescolaritzacio-segons\/"},"modified":"2022-07-16T04:00:27","modified_gmt":"2022-07-16T02:00:27","slug":"els-escenaris-de-lescolaritzacio-segons","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/noticies\/els-escenaris-de-lescolaritzacio-segons\/","title":{"rendered":"Els escenaris de l&#8217;escolaritzaci\u00f3, segons l&#8217;OCDE"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/139\/2022\/07\/20121202202500-lptf-oecd-1.jpg\" style=\"clear: right;float: right;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 1em\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/139\/2022\/07\/20121202202500-lptf-oecd-1.jpg\" \/><\/a><b>Centre per a la Recerca i la Innovaci\u00f3 Educativa (CERI) &#8211; Els escenaris&nbsp;de l&#8217;escolaritzaci\u00f3 segons l&#8217;OCDE&nbsp;<\/b><\/p>\n<p>El grup del CERI (Centre for Educational Research and Innovation) de l&#8217;OCDE ha desenvolupat una s\u00e8rie de sis possibles escenaris educatius per als propers anys (fins al 2020), agrupats en tres categories: manteniment del status quo, evoluci\u00f3 (re-schooling), involuci\u00f3 (de-schooling),. El valor que ells mateixos reconeixen l&#8217;exercici \u00e9s el d&#8217;una eina per pensar sobre el que volem i sobre el que no volem &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a name='more'><\/a><\/p>\n<p><b style=\"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size: x-large\">Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) &#8211; The OECD Schooling Scenarios in Brief<\/b><br \/>\n<b style=\"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size: x-large\"><br \/><\/b><br \/>\nWe have developed a set of six scenarios for schooling in the<br \/>\n future up to 2020. They have been clustered into three main categories:<br \/>\n Scenarios 1a and 1b \u00abAttempting to Maintain the Status Quo\u00bb, 2a and 2b<br \/>\n\u00abRe-schooling\u00bb, 3a and 3b \u00abDe-schooling\u00bb. This categorisation is<br \/>\nslightly different from that in our 2001 publication \u00abWhat Schools for<br \/>\nthe Future?\u00bb in Chapter 3, but the contents of the scenarios themselves<br \/>\nhave not changed.<\/p>\n<p>The scenarios describe in \u00abpure form\u00bb how schooling might be overall<br \/>\nin a society, not individual schools or local developments. In reality,<br \/>\none would expect complex mixes to emerge between these different<br \/>\npossible futures, rather than one or the other. By sharpening the<br \/>\nalternatives, their value is as a tool to think about what we want and<br \/>\ndo not want, and how probable the more or less desired choices are in<br \/>\nterms of on-going trends and policies.<\/p>\n<p>We would be very interested to have feedback from anyone who has used<br \/>\n these scenarios in conferences, workshops or policy-making.<\/p>\n<p><b><\/p>\n<p> <\/b><b>1. ATTEMPTING TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>With the \u00abstatus quo\u00bb scenarios, the basic features of existing<br \/>\nsystems are maintained well into the future, whether from public choice<br \/>\nor from the inability to implement fundamental change. In Scenario 1.a,<br \/>\nthe future unfolds as gradual evolution of the present with school<br \/>\nsystems continuing to be strong; in Scenario 1.b, there is a major<br \/>\ncrisis of the system triggered by acute teacher shortages.<\/p>\n<p><b><br \/>\n <\/b><b>Scenario 1.a: \u00abBureaucratic School Systems Continue\u00bb<\/b><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<b><br \/><\/b><br \/>\nThis scenario is built on the continuation of powerfully bureaucratic<br \/>\n systems, strong pressures towards uniformity, and resistance to radical<br \/>\n change. Schools are highly distinct institutions, knitted together<br \/>\nwithin complex administrative arrangements. Political and media<br \/>\ncommentaries are frequently critical in tone; despite the criticisms,<br \/>\nradical change is resisted. Many fear that alternatives would not<br \/>\naddress fundamental tasks such as guardianship and socialisation,<br \/>\nalongside the goals relating to cognitive knowledge and diplomas, nor<br \/>\ndeliver equality of opportunity.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation<\/em>: Curriculum and<br \/>\nqualifications are central areas of policy, and student   assessments<br \/>\nare key elements of accountability, though   questions persist over how<br \/>\nfar these develop capacities to   learn. Individual classroom and<br \/>\nteacher models remain   dominant.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance<\/em>: Priority is   given to<br \/>\nadministration and capacity to handle accountability   pressures, with<br \/>\nstrong emphasis on efficiency. The nation   (state\/province in federal<br \/>\nsystems) remains central, but   facing tensions due, for example, to<br \/>\ndecentralisation,   corporate interests in learning markets, and<br \/>\nglobalisation.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> No major   increase in<br \/>\noverall funding, while continual extension of   schools&#8217; remits with new<br \/>\n social responsibilities further   stretches resources. The use of ICT<br \/>\ncontinues to grow without   changing schools&#8217; main organisational<br \/>\nstructures.<\/li>\n<li><em>Teachers:<\/em> A distinct teacher corps,   sometimes with<br \/>\ncivil service status; strong   unions\/associations but problematic<br \/>\nprofessional status and   rewards.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b><\/p>\n<p> <\/b><b>Scenario 1.b \u00abTeacher exodus &#8211; The &#8216;meltdown scenario'\u00bb<\/b><\/p>\n<p>There would be a major crisis of teacher shortages, highly resistant<br \/>\nto conventional policy responses. It is triggered by a rapidly ageing<br \/>\nprofession, exacerbated by low teacher morale and buoyant opportunities<br \/>\nin more attractive graduate jobs. The large size of the teaching force<br \/>\nmakes improvements in relative attractiveness costly, with long lead<br \/>\ntimes for measures to show tangible results on overall numbers. Wide<br \/>\ndisparities in the depth of the crisis by socio-geographic, as well as<br \/>\nsubject, area. Very different outcomes could follow: at one extreme, a<br \/>\nvicious circle of retrenchment and conflict; at the other, emergency<br \/>\nstrategies spur radical innovation and collective change.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation:<\/em> Where teacher<br \/>\nshortages are acute they have detrimental effects on student   learning.<br \/>\n Widely different organisational responses to   shortages &#8211; some<br \/>\ntraditional, some highly innovative &#8211; and   possibly greater use of ICT.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance:<\/em> Crisis   management<br \/>\npredominates. Even in areas saved the worst   difficulties, a fortress<br \/>\nmentality prevails. National   authorities are initially strengthened,<br \/>\nacquiring extended   powers in the face of crisis, but weakened the<br \/>\nlonger crises   remain unresolved. A competitive international teaching<br \/>\n  market develops apace.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> As the   crisis takes<br \/>\nhold, funds flow increasingly into salaries to   attract more teachers,<br \/>\nwith possible detrimental consequences   for investments in areas such<br \/>\nas ICT and physical   infrastructure. Whether these imbalances would be<br \/>\nrectified   depends on strategies adopted to escape   \u00abmeltdown\u00bb<\/li>\n<li><em>Teachers:<\/em> The crisis, in part caused by   teaching&#8217;s<br \/>\nunattractiveness, would worsen with growing   shortages, especially in<br \/>\nthe most affected areas. General   teacher rewards could well increase<br \/>\nas might the   distinctiveness of the teacher corps in reflection of<br \/>\ntheir   relative scarcity, though established arrangements may<br \/>\neventually erode with \u00abmeltdown\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n<b><\/p>\n<p> <\/b><b>2. RE-SCHOOLING:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>The \u00abre-schooling\u00bb scenarios would see major investments and<br \/>\nwidespread recognition for schools and their achievements, including<br \/>\ntowards the professionals, with a high priority accorded to both quality<br \/>\n and equity. In Scenario 2.a, the focus is on socialisation goals and<br \/>\nschools in communities, in certain contrast with the stronger knowledge<br \/>\norientation of Scenario 2.b.<\/p>\n<p><b><br \/>\n <\/b><b>Scenario 2.a \u00abSchools as Core Social Centres\u00bb<\/b><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<b><br \/><\/b><br \/>\nThe school here enjoys widespread recognition as the most effective<br \/>\nbulwark against social, family and community fragmentation. It is now<br \/>\nheavily defined by collective and community tasks. This leads to<br \/>\nextensive shared responsibilities between schools and other community<br \/>\nbodies, sources of expertise, and institutions of further and continuing<br \/>\n education, shaping not conflicting with high teacher professionalism.<br \/>\nGenerous levels of financial support needed to meet demanding<br \/>\nrequirements for quality learning environments in all communities and to<br \/>\n ensure elevated esteem for teachers and schools.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation:<\/em> The focus of   learning<br \/>\nbroadens with more explicit attention given to   non-cognitive outcomes,<br \/>\n values and citizenship. A wide range   of organisational forms and<br \/>\nsettings emerge, with strong   emphasis on non-formal learning.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance:<\/em> Management   complex as the<br \/>\nschool is in dynamic interplay with diverse   community interests and of<br \/>\n formal and non-formal programmes.   Leadership is widely distributed<br \/>\nand often collective. Strong   local dimension of decision-making, while<br \/>\n drawing on   well-developed national\/international support frameworks,<br \/>\n  particularly where social infrastructure weakest.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> significant   investments<br \/>\nwould be made to update the quality of premises   and equipment in<br \/>\ngeneral, to open school facilities to the   community, and to ensure<br \/>\nthat the divides of affluence and   social capital do not widen. ICT<br \/>\nused extensively, especially   its communication capabilities.<\/li>\n<li><em>Teachers:<\/em> A core of high-status teaching<br \/>\nprofessionals, with varied contractual arrangements and   conditions,<br \/>\nthough with good rewards for all. Around this   core would be many other<br \/>\n professionals, community players,   parents, etc., and a blurring of<br \/>\nroles.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b><\/p>\n<p> <\/b><b>Scenario 2.b \u00abSchools as Focused Learning Organisations\u00bb<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Schools are revitalised around a strong knowledge rather than social<br \/>\nagenda, in a culture of high quality, experimentation, diversity, and<br \/>\ninnovation. New forms of evaluation and competence assessment flourish.<br \/>\nICT used extensively alongside other learning media, traditional and<br \/>\nnew. Knowledge management to the fore, and the very large majority of<br \/>\nschools justify the label \u00ablearning organisations\u00bb (hence is equality of<br \/>\n opportunity the norm), with extensive links to tertiary education and<br \/>\ndiverse other organisations.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation:<\/em> demanding   expectations<br \/>\n for all for teaching and learning combines with   widespread<br \/>\ndevelopment of specialisms and diversity of   organisational forms.<br \/>\nFlourishing research on pedagogy and   the science of learning is<br \/>\nsystematically   applied.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance:<\/em> \u00abLearning   organisation\u00bb<br \/>\nschools characterised by flat hierarchy   structures, using teams,<br \/>\nnetworks and diverse sources of   expertise. Quality norms typically<br \/>\nreplace regulatory and   punitive accountability approaches.<br \/>\nDecision-making rooted   strongly within schools and the profession,<br \/>\nwith the close   involvement of parents, organisations, and tertiary<br \/>\neducation   and with well-developed guiding frameworks and support<br \/>\nsystems.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> substantial   investments<br \/>\nin all aspects of schooling, especially in   disadvantaged communities,<br \/>\nto develop flexible,   state-of-the-art facilities. Extensive use made<br \/>\nof ICT. The   partnerships with organisations and tertiary education<br \/>\nenhance the diversity of educational plant and   facilities.<\/li>\n<li><em>Teachers:<\/em> Highly motivated enjoying   favourable<br \/>\nconditions, with strong emphasis on R&amp;D,   continuous professional<br \/>\ndevelopment, group activities,   networking (including internationally).<br \/>\n Contractual   arrangements might well be diverse, with mobility in and<br \/>\nout   of teaching.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b><\/p>\n<p> <\/b><b>3. DE-SCHOOLING:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Rather than high status and generous resourcing for schools, the<br \/>\ndissatisfaction of a range of key players leads to the dismantling of<br \/>\nschool systems, to a greater or lesser degree. In Scenario 3.a, new<br \/>\nforms of co-operative networks come to predominate, compared with the<br \/>\ncompetitive mechanisms of Scenario 3.b.<\/p>\n<p><b><br \/>\n <\/b><b>Scenario 3.a \u00abLearning Networks and the Network Society\u00bb<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Dissatisfaction with institutionalised provision and expression given<br \/>\n to diversified demand leads to the abandonment of schools in favour of a<br \/>\n multitude of learning networks, quickened by the extensive<br \/>\npossibilities of powerful, inexpensive ICT. The de-institutionalisation,<br \/>\n even dismantling, of school systems as part of the emerging \u00abnetwork<br \/>\nsociety\u00bb. Various cultural, religious and community voices to the fore<br \/>\nin the socialisation and learning arrangements for children, some very<br \/>\nlocal in character, others using distance and cross-border networking.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation:<\/em> Greater   expression<br \/>\ngiven to learning for different cultures and   values through networks<br \/>\nof community interests. Small group,   home schooling and individualised<br \/>\n arrangements become   widespread.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance:<\/em> With schooling   assured<br \/>\nthrough inter-locking networks, authority becomes   widely diffused.<br \/>\nThere is a substantial reduction of existing   patterns of governance<br \/>\nand accountability, though public   policy responsibilities might still<br \/>\ninclude addressing the   \u00abdigital divide\u00bb, some regulation and<br \/>\nframework-setting, and   overseeing remaining schools.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> There would   be a<br \/>\nsubstantial reduction in public facilities and   institutionalised<br \/>\npremises. Whether an overall reduction in   learning resources is hard<br \/>\nto predict, though major   investments in ICT could be expected.<br \/>\nDiseconomies of small   scale, with schooling organised by groups and<br \/>\nindividuals,   might limit new investments.<\/li>\n<li>Teachers: there is no longer reliance on particular<br \/>\nprofessionals called \u00abteachers\u00bb: the demarcations between   teacher and<br \/>\nstudent, parent and teacher, education and   community, blur and<br \/>\nsometimes break down. New learning   professionals emerge, whether<br \/>\nemployed locally to teach or as   consultants.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b><\/p>\n<p> <\/b><b>Scenario 3.b \u00abExtending the Market Model\u00bb<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Existing market features in education are significantly extended as<br \/>\ngovernments encourage diversification in a broader environment of<br \/>\nmarket-led change. This fuelled by dissatisfaction by \u00abstrategic<br \/>\nconsumers\u00bb in cultures where schooling is commonly viewed as a private<br \/>\nas well as a public good. Many new providers are stimulated to come into<br \/>\n the learning market, encouraged by thoroughgoing reforms of funding<br \/>\nstructures, incentives and regulation. Flourishing indicators, measures,<br \/>\n and accreditation arrangements start to displace direct public<br \/>\nmonitoring and curriculum regulation. Innovation abounds as do painful<br \/>\ntransitions and inequalities.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation:<\/em> The most valued<br \/>\nlearning is importantly determined by choices and demands &#8211;   whether of<br \/>\n those buying educational services or of those,   such as employers,<br \/>\ngiving market value to different forms   learning routes. A strong focus<br \/>\n on non-cognitive outcomes and   values might be expected to emerge.<br \/>\nWide organisational   diversity.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance:<\/em> There is a   substantially<br \/>\nreduced role for public education authorities &#8211;   overseeing market<br \/>\nregulation but less involvement through   organising provision or<br \/>\n\u00absteering\u00bb and \u00abmonitoring\u00bb &#8211; and   entrepreneurial management modes are<br \/>\n more prominent.   Important roles for information and guidance services<br \/>\n and for   indicators and competence assessments that provide market<br \/>\n\u00abcurrency\u00bb.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> Funding   arrangements and<br \/>\n incentives are critical in shaping learning   markets and determining<br \/>\nabsolute levels of resources. A wide   range of market-driven changes<br \/>\nwould be introduced into the   ownership and running of the learning<br \/>\ninfrastructure, some   highly innovative and with the extensive use of<br \/>\nICT. Problems   might be the diseconomies of scale and the inequalities<br \/>\n  associated with market failure.<\/li>\n<li><em>Teachers:<\/em> New learning professionals &#8211;   public,<br \/>\nprivate; full-time, part-time &#8211; are created in the   learning markets,<br \/>\nand new training and accreditation   opportunities would emerge for<br \/>\nthem. Market forces might see   these professionals in much readier<br \/>\nsupply in areas of   residential desirability and\/or learning market<br \/>\nopportunity   than elsewhere.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Centre per a la Recerca i la Innovaci\u00f3 Educativa (CERI) &#8211; Els escenaris&nbsp;de l&#8217;escolaritzaci\u00f3 segons l&#8217;OCDE&nbsp; El grup del CERI &#8230; <a title=\"Els escenaris de l&#8217;escolaritzaci\u00f3, segons l&#8217;OCDE\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/noticies\/els-escenaris-de-lescolaritzacio-segons\/\" aria-label=\"M\u00e9s informaci\u00f3 sobre Els escenaris de l&#8217;escolaritzaci\u00f3, segons l&#8217;OCDE\">Llegiu-ne m\u00e9s<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":141900,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"twitterCardType":"","cardImageID":0,"cardImage":"","cardTitle":"","cardDesc":"","cardImageAlt":"","cardPlayer":"","cardPlayerWidth":0,"cardPlayerHeight":0,"cardPlayerStream":"","cardPlayerCodec":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[98,104],"class_list":["post-141899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticies","tag-opinio","tag-politica-educativa","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"gutentor_comment":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141899","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=141899"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141899\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/141900"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=141899"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=141899"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=141899"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}