{"id":122416,"date":"2014-03-31T08:25:00","date_gmt":"2014-03-31T06:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/noticies\/els-escenaris-de-l-segons\/"},"modified":"2022-07-15T09:57:39","modified_gmt":"2022-07-15T07:57:39","slug":"els-escenaris-de-l-segons","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/noticies\/publica\/els-escenaris-de-l-segons\/","title":{"rendered":"Els escenaris de l&#39;escolaritzaci\u00f3, segons l&#39;OCDE"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/139\/2022\/07\/20121202202500-lptf-oecd.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/139\/2022\/07\/20121202202500-lptf-oecd.jpg\" \/><\/a><b>Centre per a la Recerca i la Innovaci\u00f3 Educativa (CERI) &#8211; Els escenaris&nbsp;de l&#8217;escolaritzaci\u00f3 segons l&#8217;OCDE&nbsp;<\/b><\/p>\n<p>El grup del CERI (Centre for Educational Research and Innovation) de l&#8217;OCDE ha desenvolupat una s\u00e8rie de sis possibles escenaris educatius per als propers anys (fins al 2020), agrupats en tres categories: manteniment del status quo, evoluci\u00f3 (re-schooling), involuci\u00f3 (de-schooling),. El valor que ells mateixos reconeixen l&#8217;exercici \u00e9s el d&#8217;una eina per pensar sobre el que volem i sobre el que no volem &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a name='more'><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/null\" name=\"more\"><\/a><br \/>\n<b style=\"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;\">Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) &#8211; The OECD Schooling Scenarios in Brief<\/b><br \/>\n<b style=\"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;\"><br \/><\/b>We have developed a set of six scenarios for schooling in the  future up to 2020. They have been clustered into three main categories:  Scenarios 1a and 1b \u00abAttempting to Maintain the Status Quo\u00bb, 2a and 2b  \u00abRe-schooling\u00bb, 3a and 3b \u00abDe-schooling\u00bb. This categorisation is  slightly different from that in our 2001 publication \u00abWhat Schools for  the Future?\u00bb in Chapter 3, but the contents of the scenarios themselves  have not changed.<\/p>\n<p>The scenarios describe in \u00abpure form\u00bb how schooling might be overall  in a society, not individual schools or local developments. In reality,  one would expect complex mixes to emerge between these different  possible futures, rather than one or the other. By sharpening the  alternatives, their value is as a tool to think about what we want and  do not want, and how probable the more or less desired choices are in  terms of on-going trends and policies.<\/p>\n<p>We would be very interested to have feedback from anyone who has used  these scenarios in conferences, workshops or policy-making.<\/p>\n<p><b>   <\/b><b>1. ATTEMPTING TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>With the \u00abstatus quo\u00bb scenarios, the basic features of existing  systems are maintained well into the future, whether from public choice  or from the inability to implement fundamental change. In Scenario 1.a,  the future unfolds as gradual evolution of the present with school  systems continuing to be strong; in Scenario 1.b, there is a major  crisis of the system triggered by acute teacher shortages.<\/p>\n<p><b> <\/b><b>Scenario 1.a: \u00abBureaucratic School Systems Continue\u00bb<\/b><br \/>\n<b><br \/><\/b>This scenario is built on the continuation of powerfully bureaucratic  systems, strong pressures towards uniformity, and resistance to radical  change. Schools are highly distinct institutions, knitted together  within complex administrative arrangements. Political and media  commentaries are frequently critical in tone; despite the criticisms,  radical change is resisted. Many fear that alternatives would not  address fundamental tasks such as guardianship and socialisation,  alongside the goals relating to cognitive knowledge and diplomas, nor  deliver equality of opportunity.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation<\/em>: Curriculum and    qualifications are central areas of policy, and student   assessments  are key elements of accountability, though   questions persist over how  far these develop capacities to   learn. Individual classroom and  teacher models remain   dominant.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance<\/em>: Priority is   given to  administration and capacity to handle accountability   pressures, with  strong emphasis on efficiency. The nation   (state\/province in federal  systems) remains central, but   facing tensions due, for example, to  decentralisation,   corporate interests in learning markets, and    globalisation.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> No major   increase in  overall funding, while continual extension of   schools&#8217; remits with new  social responsibilities further   stretches resources. The use of ICT  continues to grow without   changing schools&#8217; main organisational  structures.<\/li>\n<li><em>Teachers:<\/em> A distinct teacher corps,   sometimes with  civil service status; strong   unions\/associations but problematic  professional status and   rewards.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>   <\/b><b>Scenario 1.b \u00abTeacher exodus &#8211; The &#8216;meltdown scenario'\u00bb<\/b><\/p>\n<p>There would be a major crisis of teacher shortages, highly resistant  to conventional policy responses. It is triggered by a rapidly ageing  profession, exacerbated by low teacher morale and buoyant opportunities  in more attractive graduate jobs. The large size of the teaching force  makes improvements in relative attractiveness costly, with long lead  times for measures to show tangible results on overall numbers. Wide  disparities in the depth of the crisis by socio-geographic, as well as  subject, area. Very different outcomes could follow: at one extreme, a  vicious circle of retrenchment and conflict; at the other, emergency  strategies spur radical innovation and collective change.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation:<\/em> Where teacher    shortages are acute they have detrimental effects on student   learning.  Widely different organisational responses to   shortages &#8211; some  traditional, some highly innovative &#8211; and   possibly greater use of ICT.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance:<\/em> Crisis   management  predominates. Even in areas saved the worst   difficulties, a fortress  mentality prevails. National   authorities are initially strengthened,  acquiring extended   powers in the face of crisis, but weakened the  longer crises   remain unresolved. A competitive international teaching    market develops apace.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> As the   crisis takes  hold, funds flow increasingly into salaries to   attract more teachers,  with possible detrimental consequences   for investments in areas such  as ICT and physical   infrastructure. Whether these imbalances would be  rectified   depends on strategies adopted to escape   \u00abmeltdown\u00bb<\/li>\n<li><em>Teachers:<\/em> The crisis, in part caused by   teaching&#8217;s  unattractiveness, would worsen with growing   shortages, especially in  the most affected areas. General   teacher rewards could well increase  as might the   distinctiveness of the teacher corps in reflection of  their   relative scarcity, though established arrangements may    eventually erode with \u00abmeltdown\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>   <\/b><b>2. RE-SCHOOLING:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>The \u00abre-schooling\u00bb scenarios would see major investments and  widespread recognition for schools and their achievements, including  towards the professionals, with a high priority accorded to both quality  and equity. In Scenario 2.a, the focus is on socialisation goals and  schools in communities, in certain contrast with the stronger knowledge  orientation of Scenario 2.b.<\/p>\n<p><b> <\/b><b>Scenario 2.a \u00abSchools as Core Social Centres\u00bb<\/b><br \/>\n<b><br \/><\/b>The school here enjoys widespread recognition as the most effective  bulwark against social, family and community fragmentation. It is now  heavily defined by collective and community tasks. This leads to  extensive shared responsibilities between schools and other community  bodies, sources of expertise, and institutions of further and continuing  education, shaping not conflicting with high teacher professionalism.  Generous levels of financial support needed to meet demanding  requirements for quality learning environments in all communities and to  ensure elevated esteem for teachers and schools.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation:<\/em> The focus of   learning  broadens with more explicit attention given to   non-cognitive outcomes,  values and citizenship. A wide range   of organisational forms and  settings emerge, with strong   emphasis on non-formal learning.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance:<\/em> Management   complex as the  school is in dynamic interplay with diverse   community interests and of  formal and non-formal programmes.   Leadership is widely distributed  and often collective. Strong   local dimension of decision-making, while  drawing on   well-developed national\/international support frameworks,    particularly where social infrastructure weakest.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> significant   investments  would be made to update the quality of premises   and equipment in  general, to open school facilities to the   community, and to ensure  that the divides of affluence and   social capital do not widen. ICT  used extensively, especially   its communication capabilities.<\/li>\n<li><em>Teachers:<\/em> A core of high-status teaching    professionals, with varied contractual arrangements and   conditions,  though with good rewards for all. Around this   core would be many other  professionals, community players,   parents, etc., and a blurring of  roles.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>   <\/b><b>Scenario 2.b \u00abSchools as Focused Learning Organisations\u00bb<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Schools are revitalised around a strong knowledge rather than social  agenda, in a culture of high quality, experimentation, diversity, and  innovation. New forms of evaluation and competence assessment flourish.  ICT used extensively alongside other learning media, traditional and  new. Knowledge management to the fore, and the very large majority of  schools justify the label \u00ablearning organisations\u00bb (hence is equality of  opportunity the norm), with extensive links to tertiary education and  diverse other organisations.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation:<\/em> demanding   expectations  for all for teaching and learning combines with   widespread  development of specialisms and diversity of   organisational forms.  Flourishing research on pedagogy and   the science of learning is  systematically   applied.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance:<\/em> \u00abLearning   organisation\u00bb  schools characterised by flat hierarchy   structures, using teams,  networks and diverse sources of   expertise. Quality norms typically  replace regulatory and   punitive accountability approaches.  Decision-making rooted   strongly within schools and the profession,  with the close   involvement of parents, organisations, and tertiary  education   and with well-developed guiding frameworks and support    systems.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> substantial   investments  in all aspects of schooling, especially in   disadvantaged communities,  to develop flexible,   state-of-the-art facilities. Extensive use made  of ICT. The   partnerships with organisations and tertiary education    enhance the diversity of educational plant and   facilities.<\/li>\n<li><em>Teachers:<\/em> Highly motivated enjoying   favourable  conditions, with strong emphasis on R&amp;D,   continuous professional  development, group activities,   networking (including internationally).  Contractual   arrangements might well be diverse, with mobility in and  out   of teaching.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>   <\/b><b>3. DE-SCHOOLING:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Rather than high status and generous resourcing for schools, the  dissatisfaction of a range of key players leads to the dismantling of  school systems, to a greater or lesser degree. In Scenario 3.a, new  forms of co-operative networks come to predominate, compared with the  competitive mechanisms of Scenario 3.b.<\/p>\n<p><b> <\/b><b>Scenario 3.a \u00abLearning Networks and the Network Society\u00bb<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Dissatisfaction with institutionalised provision and expression given  to diversified demand leads to the abandonment of schools in favour of a  multitude of learning networks, quickened by the extensive  possibilities of powerful, inexpensive ICT. The de-institutionalisation,  even dismantling, of school systems as part of the emerging \u00abnetwork  society\u00bb. Various cultural, religious and community voices to the fore  in the socialisation and learning arrangements for children, some very  local in character, others using distance and cross-border networking.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation:<\/em> Greater   expression  given to learning for different cultures and   values through networks  of community interests. Small group,   home schooling and individualised  arrangements become   widespread.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance:<\/em> With schooling   assured  through inter-locking networks, authority becomes   widely diffused.  There is a substantial reduction of existing   patterns of governance  and accountability, though public   policy responsibilities might still  include addressing the   \u00abdigital divide\u00bb, some regulation and  framework-setting, and   overseeing remaining schools.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> There would   be a  substantial reduction in public facilities and   institutionalised  premises. Whether an overall reduction in   learning resources is hard  to predict, though major   investments in ICT could be expected.  Diseconomies of small   scale, with schooling organised by groups and  individuals,   might limit new investments.<\/li>\n<li>Teachers: there is no longer reliance on particular    professionals called \u00abteachers\u00bb: the demarcations between   teacher and  student, parent and teacher, education and   community, blur and  sometimes break down. New learning   professionals emerge, whether  employed locally to teach or as   consultants.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>   <\/b><b>Scenario 3.b \u00abExtending the Market Model\u00bb<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Existing market features in education are significantly extended as  governments encourage diversification in a broader environment of  market-led change. This fuelled by dissatisfaction by \u00abstrategic  consumers\u00bb in cultures where schooling is commonly viewed as a private  as well as a public good. Many new providers are stimulated to come into  the learning market, encouraged by thoroughgoing reforms of funding  structures, incentives and regulation. Flourishing indicators, measures,  and accreditation arrangements start to displace direct public  monitoring and curriculum regulation. Innovation abounds as do painful  transitions and inequalities.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Learning and organisation:<\/em> The most valued    learning is importantly determined by choices and demands &#8211;   whether of  those buying educational services or of those,   such as employers,  giving market value to different forms   learning routes. A strong focus  on non-cognitive outcomes and   values might be expected to emerge.  Wide organisational   diversity.<\/li>\n<li><em>Management and governance:<\/em> There is a   substantially  reduced role for public education authorities &#8211;   overseeing market  regulation but less involvement through   organising provision or  \u00absteering\u00bb and \u00abmonitoring\u00bb &#8211; and   entrepreneurial management modes are  more prominent.   Important roles for information and guidance services  and for   indicators and competence assessments that provide market    \u00abcurrency\u00bb.<\/li>\n<li><em>Resources and infrastructure:<\/em> Funding   arrangements and  incentives are critical in shaping learning   markets and determining  absolute levels of resources. A wide   range of market-driven changes  would be introduced into the   ownership and running of the learning  infrastructure, some   highly innovative and with the extensive use of  ICT. Problems   might be the diseconomies of scale and the inequalities    associated with market failure.<\/li>\n<li><em>Teachers:<\/em> New learning professionals &#8211;   public,  private; full-time, part-time &#8211; are created in the   learning markets,  and new training and accreditation   opportunities would emerge for  them. Market forces might see   these professionals in much readier  supply in areas of   residential desirability and\/or learning market  opportunity   than elsewhere.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Centre per a la Recerca i la Innovaci\u00f3 Educativa (CERI) &#8211; Els escenaris&nbsp;de l&#8217;escolaritzaci\u00f3 segons l&#8217;OCDE&nbsp; El grup del CERI &#8230; <a title=\"Els escenaris de l&#039;escolaritzaci\u00f3, segons l&#039;OCDE\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/noticies\/publica\/els-escenaris-de-l-segons\/\" aria-label=\"M\u00e9s informaci\u00f3 sobre Els escenaris de l&#039;escolaritzaci\u00f3, segons l&#039;OCDE\">Llegiu-ne m\u00e9s<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":122417,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"twitterCardType":"","cardImageID":0,"cardImage":"","cardTitle":"","cardDesc":"","cardImageAlt":"","cardPlayer":"","cardPlayerWidth":0,"cardPlayerHeight":0,"cardPlayerStream":"","cardPlayerCodec":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1051],"tags":[98,104],"class_list":["post-122416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publica","tag-opinio","tag-politica-educativa","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"gutentor_comment":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=122416"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122416\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":122418,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122416\/revisions\/122418"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/122417"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=122416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=122416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccoo.cat\/educacio\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=122416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}